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Undertow

NQ ● holds overnight ● live testing 24/7

Short-term mean reversion on the Nasdaq-100. When the index gets oversold on a short-period RSI, Undertow buys the dip at the close and exits the next close — harvesting the bounce. Long-only, in the market only ~10% of days, built from many small wins (~60% win rate). Validated lookahead-free over seven years: Sharpe ~1.2, with a maximum drawdown about a quarter of buy-and-hold's, and positive every single year — including the 2022 bear, so it isn't just long beta. Uncorrelated to the trend, breakout and gamma sleeves (+0.05) — it's the book's mean-reversion counterweight, cushioning their drawdowns. Live since June 2026 — the seven-year backtest is shown alongside the growing live track record.

  • Short-period RSI (oversold)
  • Mean-reversion dip-buy
  • Exit next close
  • Long-only NQ

Signals

$100/mo

  • Daily bias + exact execution plan via API
  • Live event feed (entries, scale-outs, exits)
  • Dashboard view + one URL for Claude/LLM use
  • Cancel anytime

Full source code

$9,999 one-time

  • Complete strategy source (Rust) incl. the model
  • Backtest harness + parameters
  • Own it, run it, modify it — no lock-in
  • Delivered within 24h to your account email

Track record

Backtest

Backtest 2019-03-06 → 2026-02-05 · 6.9y — lookahead-free, fills on real trade prints only, 1 contract incl. commission + slippage
Returns
Net P&L+$247,006
Annualized P&L+$35,688
Profit factor2.13
Expectancy / trade+$1,293
Risk-adjusted
Sharpe1.19
Sortino2.34
Calmar1.23
Recovery factor8.49
Drawdown & risk
Max drawdown−$29,089
Worst trade−$22,594
Max consec. losses4
Trade stats
Trades191
Win rate59.7%
Avg trades / mo2.3
Payoff ratio1.44
Avg win+$4,092
Avg loss−$2,851

Live paper-trading

Live paper-trading on tickstream data since 2026-06-29
Live · since Jun 2026
Net P&L+$839
Trades22
Win rate13.6%
Profit factor39.56
Expectancy / trade+$38
Max drawdown−$7
DateSideEntryExitP&LReason
2026-07-27 FLAT −$7 eod
2026-07-26 LONG +$453 eod
2026-07-24 FLAT −$7 eod
2026-07-23 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-22 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-21 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-20 LONG +$338 eod
2026-07-19 LONG +$70 eod
2026-07-17 FLAT −$7 eod
2026-07-16 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-15 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-14 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-13 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-10 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-09 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-08 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-07 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-06 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-05 FLAT +$0 eod
2026-07-03 FLAT +$0 eod

Live results are paper-traded on real tickstream market data (1 NQ contract, $4.50 commission, 1-tick slippage). The backtest is lookahead-free: weekly CFTC data is anchored on its actual publication day and fills are simulated on real trade prints only — the live agent runs the identical model. Past performance, simulated or live, does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.