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Aftershock

NQ ● holds overnight ● live testing 24/7

A calendar edge from options-dealer hedging: in the week after monthly expiration (the 3rd Friday), charm and vanna hedges unwind and the Nasdaq-100 drifts up. Aftershock is long one NQ through those five sessions, held close-to-close (it holds overnight to capture the full drift — ~$155k over 7 years), and flat the rest of the month. Pure calendar, no external data and no fitted parameters, so the whole history is effectively out-of-sample. Uncorrelated to the rest of the line-up. Prefer no overnight risk? See Aftershock Day. Live since June 2026 — the seven-year backtest is shown alongside the growing live track record.

  • Options expiration (OPEX)
  • Charm/vanna hedge unwind
  • Calendar drift
  • Held overnight

Signals

$100/mo

  • Daily bias + exact execution plan via API
  • Live event feed (entries, scale-outs, exits)
  • Dashboard view + one URL for Claude/LLM use
  • Cancel anytime

Full source code

$9,999 one-time

  • Complete strategy source (Rust) incl. the model
  • Backtest harness + parameters
  • Own it, run it, modify it — no lock-in
  • Delivered within 24h to your account email

Track record

Backtest

Backtest 2019-03-18 → 2026-02-27 · 6.9y — lookahead-free, fills on real trade prints only, 1 contract incl. commission + slippage
Returns
Net P&L+$155,250
Annualized P&L+$22,342
Profit factor1.31
Expectancy / trade+$319
Risk-adjusted
Sharpe0.75
Sortino1.09
Calmar0.61
Recovery factor4.22
Drawdown & risk
Max drawdown−$36,775
Worst trade−$14,395
Max consec. losses6
Trade stats
Trades486
Win rate50.2%
Avg trades / mo5.83
Payoff ratio1.30
Avg win+$2,714
Avg loss−$2,094

Live paper-trading

Live paper-trading on tickstream data since 2026-06-01
Live · since Jun 2026
Net P&L−$35,665
Trades45
Win rate11.1%
Profit factor0.31
Expectancy / trade−$793
Max drawdown−$35,780
DateSideEntryExitP&LReason
2026-07-27 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-26 FLAT −$5 post-opex
2026-07-24 LONG −$6,630 post-opex
2026-07-23 LONG −$10,920 post-opex
2026-07-22 LONG −$3,010 post-opex
2026-07-21 LONG +$10,520 post-opex
2026-07-20 LONG +$345 post-opex
2026-07-19 LONG +$65 post-opex
2026-07-17 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-16 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-15 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-14 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-13 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-10 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-09 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-08 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-07 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-06 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-05 FLAT +$0 post-opex
2026-07-03 FLAT +$0 post-opex

Live results are paper-traded on real tickstream market data (1 NQ contract, $4.50 commission, 1-tick slippage). The backtest is lookahead-free: weekly CFTC data is anchored on its actual publication day and fills are simulated on real trade prints only — the live agent runs the identical model. Past performance, simulated or live, does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.